Middle East, Mediterranean, and North Africa experiencing climate-induced extreme heat

Extreme heat in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Northern Africa linked to climate change

Forecasts indicate that much of Northern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East will experience a period of unusually hot conditions from June 11-13, 2024. During this period, over 290 million people will experience extreme heat made at least five times more likely because of human-caused climate change.

Note: This event may continue beyond June 13. Use the Global Climate Shift Index map to stay updated on heat in your region.

How unusual is the forecasted heat?

• Maximum temperatures at or above 40°C are expected in cities across Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Turkmenistan, Algeria, Egypt, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Greece.

• Temperatures between 30°C and 38°C are forecast in cities such as Plovdiv, Burgas, and Sofia, Bulgaria; Benghazi and Misrata, Libya; Rafah, Gaza Strip; Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, Israel; Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece; and Antalya and Izmir, Turkey.

• Average temperature anomalies ranging between 2°C and 8°C above normal are expected across much of the region.

How has climate change influenced this heat?

• Daily average temperatures are expected to reach Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels of 5 in most of Algeria, western and southern Libya, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, western Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. A CSI level 5 indicates that human-caused climate change made this excessive heat at least five times more likely, signifying an exceptional climate change event. 

• From June 11-13, more than 66 million people in Turkey will experience at least one day with CSI level 5.

• Over the entire period across Northern Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, just over 290 million people will experience at least one day with CSI level 5 — a significant climate change signal.

Many cities will experience extended periods of extreme heat. See table below for cities most impacted. 

What impact could this extreme heat have?

• Concerns are rising about the early wildfire season, particularly in Greece. After a two-week heat wave last year, over 150,000 hectares of farmland and forests were destroyed by wildfires in the country. Prolonged exposure to high temperatures may increase the risk for wildfires.  

• Bulgaria produces a significant amount of rose oil, a vital component to their economy. Reports indicated that the rose bloom season started much earlier this year as a result of a mild winter and hot and humid spring. 

  • While an earlier start to the season is viewed as beneficial, excessive heat such as what is predicted over the next few days may damage the rose petals via wilting or scorching, reduce the amount of oil produced, and impact the aroma of the oil. rose oil quality peaks at temperatures between 22 and 24 C according to harvesters, temperatures which are expected to be exceeded over the next several days. 

• Exposure to excessive heat increases the risk of heat-related illnesses such as exhaustion and stroke, and may aggravate underlying conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, asthma, and many others.

• In Bulgaria, while there are efforts underway to update buildings, many buildings do not have air conditioning or a way of effectively keeping the buildings cool.

• In addition to the heat, southwesterly winds are expected to bring more Saharan dust into the atmosphere for the next two to three days, potentially worsening air quality. Saharan dust intrusions cause precipitation to mix with sand, resulting in dust and sand covered cars.  

• Many people fleeing conflict in Sub-Saharan and Northern African countries have been seeking refuge in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria. Refugees and other migrants without a home or resources in Libya may be more vulnerable to abnormally hot temperatures.

• This heat is also expected to impact conflict-torn regions including but not limited to Israel, Palestinian Territories including the Gaza Strip, and Syria. 

Use the Climate Shift Index global map to see CSI levels in your city and region, and see our FAQs to learn about the CSI in both English and Spanish. 

Table 1. Cities with significant temperature anomalies (departure from normal temperatures) with a climate change signal (CSI level 3 or higher) on certain dates during June 11-13, 2024. The peak temperature anomalies and CSI levels are based on the average daily anomaly for that city. The average CSI for 11-13, 2024 refers to the CSI level for the 3-day period as a whole. 

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The Climate Shift Index uses peer-reviewed methodology to estimate how climate change has increased the likelihood of a particular daily temperature. It can be run using historical or forecast temperatures.

Using computer models, we compared the likelihood that these temperatures would occur in a world without carbon emissions released by humans, versus in today's world with decades of carbon emissions building up in the atmosphere. This is an established scientific method to determine how much climate change has or has not affected individual extreme weather events.

For this analysis, temperatures come from the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System.

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Peter Girard at pgirard@climatecentral.org